goodness of fit

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goodness of fit

Wade Hiscock

Hi folks,

 

I have the following data in SPSS…the four columns are: length bin, total catch, observed probability of capture, and predicted probability of capture.  I have calculated the probability data using logistic model in Excel (along with solver) to get an s-shaped selectivity curve.   Now I have the data in SPSS and I want to test how well does the predicted model fit the observed data.  I thought this would have been a simple procedure but I am stumped.  Any help would be appreciated.

        

57.00     3.00        0.00        0.00144

62.00     5.00        0.20        0.00337

67.00     10.00     0.10        0.00782

72.00     12.00     0.08        0.01807

77.00     20.00     0.05        0.04118

82.00     13.00     0.46        0.09110

87.00     23.00     0.61        0.18960

92.00     41.00     0.61        0.35320

97.00     48.00     0.81        0.56036

102.00   91.00     0.82        0.74843

107.00   87.00     0.84        0.87412

112.00   91.00     0.92        0.94189

117.00   59.00     0.83        0.97425

122.00   19.00     0.89        0.98880

127.00   9.00        0.89        0.99517

132.00   4.00        0.25        0.99793

137.00   2.00        1.00        0.99911

142.00   3.00        1.00        0.99962

147.00   1.00        1.00        0.99984

 

Wade Hiscock 
Fisheries Biologist
Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Resources (CSAR)
Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland
P.O. Box 4920, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
A1C 5R3

Tel.: (709) 778-0366
Fax.: (709) 778-0661
My Research

 

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FW: goodness of fit

Wade Hiscock

Hi folks…still looking for some advice on problem below….

 

 

From: Wade Hiscock
Sent: October 28, 2010 1:42 PM
To: '[hidden email]'
Subject: goodness of fit

 

Hi folks,

 

I have the following data in SPSS…the four columns are: length bin, total catch, observed probability of capture, and predicted probability of capture.  I have calculated the probability data using logistic model in Excel (along with solver) to get an s-shaped selectivity curve.   Now I have the data in SPSS and I want to test how well does the predicted model fit the observed data.  I thought this would have been a simple procedure but I am stumped.  Any help would be appreciated.

        

57.00     3.00        0.00        0.00144

62.00     5.00        0.20        0.00337

67.00     10.00     0.10        0.00782

72.00     12.00     0.08        0.01807

77.00     20.00     0.05        0.04118

82.00     13.00     0.46        0.09110

87.00     23.00     0.61        0.18960

92.00     41.00     0.61        0.35320

97.00     48.00     0.81        0.56036

102.00   91.00     0.82        0.74843

107.00   87.00     0.84        0.87412

112.00   91.00     0.92        0.94189

117.00   59.00     0.83        0.97425

122.00   19.00     0.89        0.98880

127.00   9.00        0.89        0.99517

132.00   4.00        0.25        0.99793

137.00   2.00        1.00        0.99911

142.00   3.00        1.00        0.99962

147.00   1.00        1.00        0.99984

 

Wade Hiscock 
Fisheries Biologist
Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Resources (CSAR)
Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland
P.O. Box 4920, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
A1C 5R3

Tel.: (709) 778-0366
Fax.: (709) 778-0661
My Research

 

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Re: goodness of fit

Ryan
In reply to this post by Wade Hiscock
Wade,
 
I am not familiar with this area of research, which in part might be contributing to some of my confusion regarding your post.  Perhaps someone else can provide an adequate response based on the information you've provided thus far. However, in order for me to help you, I would need to know exactly how you calculated the observed probabilities.  Also, would you mind operationalizing your dependent variable? Typically, when I perform a logistic regression analysis, the dependent variable is either binary (e.g., 0=failure/1=success) or binomial (e.g., # of successes / # of trials). In addition to clarifying the dependent variable, could you please describe the predictors in your model, if there are any?
 
I would prefer to gather some more information before diving into a discussion about goodness of fit for your particular model.
 
Ryan
 
On Thu, Oct 28, 2010 at 12:11 PM, Wade Hiscock <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hi folks,

 

I have the following data in SPSS…the four columns are: length bin, total catch, observed probability of capture, and predicted probability of capture.  I have calculated the probability data using logistic model in Excel (along with solver) to get an s-shaped selectivity curve.   Now I have the data in SPSS and I want to test how well does the predicted model fit the observed data.  I thought this would have been a simple procedure but I am stumped.  Any help would be appreciated.

        

57.00     3.00        0.00        0.00144

62.00     5.00        0.20        0.00337

67.00     10.00     0.10        0.00782

72.00     12.00     0.08        0.01807

77.00     20.00     0.05        0.04118

82.00     13.00     0.46        0.09110

87.00     23.00     0.61        0.18960

92.00     41.00     0.61        0.35320

97.00     48.00     0.81        0.56036

102.00   91.00     0.82        0.74843

107.00   87.00     0.84        0.87412

112.00   91.00     0.92        0.94189

117.00   59.00     0.83        0.97425

122.00   19.00     0.89        0.98880

127.00   9.00        0.89        0.99517

132.00   4.00        0.25        0.99793

137.00   2.00        1.00        0.99911

142.00   3.00        1.00        0.99962

147.00   1.00        1.00        0.99984

 

Wade Hiscock 
Fisheries Biologist
Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Resources (CSAR)
Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland
P.O. Box 4920, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
A1C 5R3

Tel.: (709) 778-0366
Fax.: (709) 778-0661
My Research

 


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Re: goodness of fit

SR Millis-3
Wade,

I agree with Ryan: we need more information about your study, how you did the analysis, and what you mean by "goodness of fit."

In logistic regression, goodness of fit may refer to model calibration---in which case, you could use Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test.  This is an option is SPSS.  Unfortunately, you have a really small sample---such that H-L test may have limited usefulness. 

Scott Millis
~~~~~~~~~~~
Scott R Millis, PhD, ABPP, CStat, CSci
Professor
Wayne State University School of Medicine
Email: [hidden email]
Email: [hidden email]
Tel: 313-993-8085

--- On Fri, 10/29/10, R B <[hidden email]> wrote:

From: R B <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: goodness of fit
To: [hidden email]
Date: Friday, October 29, 2010, 11:37 AM

Wade,
 
I am not familiar with this area of research, which in part might be contributing to some of my confusion regarding your post.  Perhaps someone else can provide an adequate response based on the information you've provided thus far. However, in order for me to help you, I would need to know exactly how you calculated the observed probabilities.  Also, would you mind operationalizing your dependent variable? Typically, when I perform a logistic regression analysis, the dependent variable is either binary (e.g., 0=failure/1=success) or binomial (e.g., # of successes / # of trials). In addition to clarifying the dependent variable, could you please describe the predictors in your model, if there are any?
 
I would prefer to gather some more information before diving into a discussion about goodness of fit for your particular model.
 
Ryan
 
On Thu, Oct 28, 2010 at 12:11 PM, Wade Hiscock <Wade.Hiscock@...> wrote:

Hi folks,

 

I have the following data in SPSS…the four columns are: length bin, total catch, observed probability of capture, and predicted probability of capture.  I have calculated the probability data using logistic model in Excel (along with solver) to get an s-shaped selectivity curve.   Now I have the data in SPSS and I want to test how well does the predicted model fit the observed data.  I thought this would have been a simple procedure but I am stumped.  Any help would be appreciated.

        

57.00     3.00        0.00        0.00144

62.00     5.00        0.20        0.00337

67.00     10.00     0.10        0.00782

72.00     12.00     0.08        0.01807

77.00     20.00     0.05        0.04118

82.00     13.00     0.46        0.09110

87.00     23.00     0.61        0.18960

92.00     41.00     0.61        0.35320

97.00     48.00     0.81        0.56036

102.00   91.00     0.82        0.74843

107.00   87.00     0.84        0.87412

112.00   91.00     0.92        0.94189

117.00   59.00     0.83        0.97425

122.00   19.00     0.89        0.98880

127.00   9.00        0.89        0.99517

132.00   4.00        0.25        0.99793

137.00   2.00        1.00        0.99911

142.00   3.00        1.00        0.99962

147.00   1.00        1.00        0.99984

 

Wade Hiscock 
Fisheries Biologist
Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Resources (CSAR)
Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland
P.O. Box 4920, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
A1C 5R3

Tel.: (709) 778-0366
Fax.: (709) 778-0661
My Research

 


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Re: goodness of fit

MaxJasper
In reply to this post by Wade Hiscock
Message
Hi Wade,
 
Contrary to friends who need more details of your analysis, there is no need to know anything more of how you did it. All needed are the data provided. If only your prob.obs and prob.pred are provided then there are several SPSS procedures to see goodness of your fit. I also added a quick logistic SPSS fit, normal fit, ....etc You can find more on SPSS capabilities.
 
Max.
 
Attached: Wade.Hiscock.logistic.pdf
-----Original Message-----
From: SPSSX(r) Discussion [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Wade Hiscock
Sent: Friday, October 29, 2010 5:41
To: [hidden email]
Subject: FW: goodness of fit

Hi folks…still looking for some advice on problem below….

 

 

From: Wade Hiscock
Sent: October 28, 2010 1:42 PM
To: '[hidden email]'
Subject: goodness of fit

 

Hi folks,

 

I have the following data in SPSS…the four columns are: length bin, total catch, observed probability of capture, and predicted probability of capture.  I have calculated the probability data using logistic model in Excel (along with solver) to get an s-shaped selectivity curve.   Now I have the data in SPSS and I want to test how well does the predicted model fit the observed data.  I thought this would have been a simple procedure but I am stumped.  Any help would be appreciated.

 

length bin, total catch, observed probability of capture, and predicted probability of capture        

57.00     3.00        0.00        0.00144

62.00     5.00        0.20        0.00337

67.00     10.00     0.10        0.00782

72.00     12.00     0.08        0.01807

77.00     20.00     0.05        0.04118

82.00     13.00     0.46        0.09110

87.00     23.00     0.61        0.18960

92.00     41.00     0.61        0.35320

97.00     48.00     0.81        0.56036

102.00   91.00     0.82        0.74843

107.00   87.00     0.84        0.87412

112.00   91.00     0.92        0.94189

117.00   59.00     0.83        0.97425

122.00   19.00     0.89        0.98880

127.00   9.00        0.89        0.99517

132.00   4.00        0.25        0.99793

137.00   2.00        1.00        0.99911

142.00   3.00        1.00        0.99962

147.00   1.00        1.00        0.99984

 

Wade Hiscock 
Fisheries Biologist
Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Resources (CSAR)
Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland
P.O. Box 4920, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
A1C 5R3

Tel.: (709) 778-0366
Fax.: (709) 778-0661
My Research

 

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Re: goodness of fit

MaxJasper
In reply to this post by Wade Hiscock
Hi Luciano,

Attached pdf.

|-----Original Message-----
|From: luciano basso [mailto:[hidden email]]
|Sent: Friday, October 29, 2010 18:10
|To: [hidden email]
|Subject: Re: goodness of fit
|
|
|Hi Max,
|
|How can I access your attachment?
|
|thanks
|
|
|Luciano
|
|
|2010/10/29 MaxJasper <[hidden email]>:
|> Hi Wade,
|>
|> Contrary to friends who need more details of your analysis, there is
|> no need to know anything more of how you did it. All needed are the
|> data provided. If only your prob.obs and prob.pred are provided then
|> there are several SPSS procedures to see goodness of your
|fit. I also
|> added a quick logistic SPSS fit, normal fit, ....etc You can
|find more
|> on SPSS capabilities.
|>
|> Max.
|>
|> Attached: Wade.Hiscock.logistic.pdf
|>
|> -----Original Message-----
|> From: SPSSX(r) Discussion [mailto:[hidden email]]
|On Behalf
|> Of Wade Hiscock
|> Sent: Friday, October 29, 2010 5:41
|> To: [hidden email]
|> Subject: FW: goodness of fit
|>
|> Hi folks…still looking for some advice on problem below….

=====================
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Re: goodness of fit

Bruce Weaver
Administrator
MaxJasper wrote
Hi Luciano,

Attached pdf.

|-----Original Message-----
|From: luciano basso [mailto:bassolu@gmail.com]
|Sent: Friday, October 29, 2010 18:10
|To: MaxJasper@shaw.ca
|Subject: Re: goodness of fit
|
|
|Hi Max,
|
|How can I access your attachment?
|
|thanks
|
|
|Luciano
|
|
|

Those of us reading via Nabble don't get attached files.  Do you have a URL for it?  Thanks.

--
Bruce Weaver
bweaver@lakeheadu.ca
http://sites.google.com/a/lakeheadu.ca/bweaver/

"When all else fails, RTFM."

PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING: 
1. My Hotmail account is not monitored regularly. To send me an e-mail, please use the address shown above.
2. The SPSSX Discussion forum on Nabble is no longer linked to the SPSSX-L listserv administered by UGA (https://listserv.uga.edu/).
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Re: goodness of fit

Richard Ristow
At 09:30 PM 10/29/2010, Bruce Weaver wrote:

>MaxJasper wrote:
>
>>Hi Luciano,
>>
>>  Attached pdf.
>
>Those of us reading via Nabble don't get attached files.

I don't think any recipients of SPSSX-L see attached files. I think
they're removed by ListServ at UGA before the postings are
distributed anywhere.

A URL is good, or simply include the text in your posting.

=====================
To manage your subscription to SPSSX-L, send a message to
[hidden email] (not to SPSSX-L), with no body text except the
command. To leave the list, send the command
SIGNOFF SPSSX-L
For a list of commands to manage subscriptions, send the command
INFO REFCARD