Analysing election results

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Analysing election results

Johnson Lau
Dear All,

I'm currently analysing some election results. The data format is as follow:

      district
     districtclass
     age
     party
     sex
     percent
     
      A
     H
     32
     X
     M
     35
     
      A
     H
     41
     Y
     F
     65
     
      B
     L
     21
     Y
     M
     70
     
      B
     L
     21
     X
     M
     10
     
      B
     L
     50
     Z
     M
     20
     
      C
     L
     46
     X
     F
     35
     
      C
     L
     35
     Y
     F
     45
     
      C
     L
     27
     Z
     M
     20
     
      D
     H
     49
     Z
     M
     40
     
      D
     H
     41
     X
     M
     60
     
      E
     H
     37
     X
     M
     30
     
      E
     H
     70
     Y
     M
     45
     
      E
     H
     61
     Z
     F
     25
     
      F
     L
     28
     Y
     F
     40
     
      F
     L
     30
     Z
     F
     60
     


These mean the District A is a Higher class district. It has 2 candidates. The first one is Male, 32, representing party X. He got 35% of total vote. The second one is Female, 41, representing party Y, and got 65% of total vote. District B is a Lower class district. It has 3 candidates, etc. Regardless the number of candidates, the sum of "percent" for any "district" must be 100.

I would like to predict the "percent" by age, party and sex. Since "percent" is restricted for each "district", I'm not sure what model should I use for such data structure. I have tried the followings:

UNIANOVA
  percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
  /DESIGN = district party sex age .

UNIANOVA
  percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
  /RANDOM = district
  /DESIGN = district party sex age .

UNIANOVA
  percent  BY party sex  WITH age
  /DESIGN = party sex age .

Would anyone please to suggest which model should I use (and possbily other model not listed)? In addition, what should I do if I want to access the interaction effect between "districtclass" and "party"? Thanks a lot!

Regards,

Johnson
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Re: Analysing election results

Richard Ristow
Reformatting, only, of orginal post by Johnson Lau
<[hidden email]>.

At 11:47 PM 3/27/2007, Johnson Lau wrote:

>I'm currently analysing some election results. The data format is as
>follow:

(The following reformatted data brought to you by WRR and the editor
Notetab, wondering why so much data does come through unrolled and
nearly unreadable. I hope this may help.)

district  districtclass  age party  sex  percent
       A        H          32   X     M     35
       A        H          41   Y     F     65
       B        L          21   Y     M     70
       B        L          21   X     M     10
       B        L          50   Z     M     20
       C        L          46   X     F     35
       C        L          35   Y     F     45
       C        L          27   Z     M     20
       D        H          49   Z     M     40
       D        H          41   X     M     60
       E        H          37   X     M     30
       E        H          70   Y     M     45
       E        H          61   Z     F     25
       F        L          28   Y     F     40
       F        L          30   Z     F     60

>These mean the District A is a Higher class district. It has 2
>candidates. The first one is Male, 32, representing party X. He got
>35% of total vote. The second one is Female, 41, representing party Y,
>and got 65% of total vote. District B is a Lower class district. It
>has 3 candidates, etc. Regardless the number of candidates, the sum of
>"percent" for any "district" must be 100.
>
>I would like to predict the "percent" by age, party and sex. Since
>"percent" is restricted for each "district", I'm not sure what model
>should I use for such data structure. I have tried the followings:
>
>UNIANOVA
>   percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
>   /DESIGN = district party sex age .
>
>UNIANOVA
>   percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
>   /RANDOM = district
>   /DESIGN = district party sex age .
>
>UNIANOVA
>   percent  BY party sex  WITH age
>   /DESIGN = party sex age .
>
>Would anyone please to suggest which model should I use (and possbily
>other model not listed)? In addition, what should I do if I want to
>access the interaction effect between "districtclass" and "party"?
>Thanks a lot!
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Re: Analysing election results

Art Kendall
Now I see what your data looks like.

Averaging percents is problematical unless the districts are the same
size.  I there any way you can get the actual counts?

Art Kendall
Social Research Consultants


Richard Ristow wrote:

> Reformatting, only, of orginal post by Johnson Lau
> <[hidden email]>.
>
> At 11:47 PM 3/27/2007, Johnson Lau wrote:
>
>> I'm currently analysing some election results. The data format is as
>> follow:
>
> (The following reformatted data brought to you by WRR and the editor
> Notetab, wondering why so much data does come through unrolled and
> nearly unreadable. I hope this may help.)
>
> district  districtclass  age party  sex  percent
>       A        H          32   X     M     35
>       A        H          41   Y     F     65
>       B        L          21   Y     M     70
>       B        L          21   X     M     10
>       B        L          50   Z     M     20
>       C        L          46   X     F     35
>       C        L          35   Y     F     45
>       C        L          27   Z     M     20
>       D        H          49   Z     M     40
>       D        H          41   X     M     60
>       E        H          37   X     M     30
>       E        H          70   Y     M     45
>       E        H          61   Z     F     25
>       F        L          28   Y     F     40
>       F        L          30   Z     F     60
>
>> These mean the District A is a Higher class district. It has 2
>> candidates. The first one is Male, 32, representing party X. He got
>> 35% of total vote. The second one is Female, 41, representing party Y,
>> and got 65% of total vote. District B is a Lower class district. It
>> has 3 candidates, etc. Regardless the number of candidates, the sum of
>> "percent" for any "district" must be 100.
>>
>> I would like to predict the "percent" by age, party and sex. Since
>> "percent" is restricted for each "district", I'm not sure what model
>> should I use for such data structure. I have tried the followings:
>>
>> UNIANOVA
>>   percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
>>   /DESIGN = district party sex age .
>>
>> UNIANOVA
>>   percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
>>   /RANDOM = district
>>   /DESIGN = district party sex age .
>>
>> UNIANOVA
>>   percent  BY party sex  WITH age
>>   /DESIGN = party sex age .
>>
>> Would anyone please to suggest which model should I use (and possbily
>> other model not listed)? In addition, what should I do if I want to
>> access the interaction effect between "districtclass" and "party"?
>> Thanks a lot!
>
>
Art Kendall
Social Research Consultants
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Re: Analysing election results

Johnson Lau
Basically they are the same size, and I have the actual counts too.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Art Kendall" <[hidden email]>
To: <[hidden email]>
Sent: Wednesday, March 28, 2007 8:06 PM
Subject: Re: Analysing election results


> Now I see what your data looks like.
>
> Averaging percents is problematical unless the districts are the same
> size.  I there any way you can get the actual counts?
>
> Art Kendall
> Social Research Consultants
>
>
> Richard Ristow wrote:
>> Reformatting, only, of orginal post by Johnson Lau
>> <[hidden email]>.
>>
>> At 11:47 PM 3/27/2007, Johnson Lau wrote:
>>
>>> I'm currently analysing some election results. The data format is as
>>> follow:
>>
>> (The following reformatted data brought to you by WRR and the editor
>> Notetab, wondering why so much data does come through unrolled and
>> nearly unreadable. I hope this may help.)
>>
>> district  districtclass  age party  sex  percent
>>       A        H          32   X     M     35
>>       A        H          41   Y     F     65
>>       B        L          21   Y     M     70
>>       B        L          21   X     M     10
>>       B        L          50   Z     M     20
>>       C        L          46   X     F     35
>>       C        L          35   Y     F     45
>>       C        L          27   Z     M     20
>>       D        H          49   Z     M     40
>>       D        H          41   X     M     60
>>       E        H          37   X     M     30
>>       E        H          70   Y     M     45
>>       E        H          61   Z     F     25
>>       F        L          28   Y     F     40
>>       F        L          30   Z     F     60
>>
>>> These mean the District A is a Higher class district. It has 2
>>> candidates. The first one is Male, 32, representing party X. He got
>>> 35% of total vote. The second one is Female, 41, representing party Y,
>>> and got 65% of total vote. District B is a Lower class district. It
>>> has 3 candidates, etc. Regardless the number of candidates, the sum of
>>> "percent" for any "district" must be 100.
>>>
>>> I would like to predict the "percent" by age, party and sex. Since
>>> "percent" is restricted for each "district", I'm not sure what model
>>> should I use for such data structure. I have tried the followings:
>>>
>>> UNIANOVA
>>>   percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
>>>   /DESIGN = district party sex age .
>>>
>>> UNIANOVA
>>>   percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
>>>   /RANDOM = district
>>>   /DESIGN = district party sex age .
>>>
>>> UNIANOVA
>>>   percent  BY party sex  WITH age
>>>   /DESIGN = party sex age .
>>>
>>> Would anyone please to suggest which model should I use (and possbily
>>> other model not listed)? In addition, what should I do if I want to
>>> access the interaction effect between "districtclass" and "party"?
>>> Thanks a lot!
>>
>>
>
>
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Re: Analysing election results

Johnson Lau
In reply to this post by Art Kendall
They are basically the same size, and I have the actual counts too.
Thanks a lot.

2007/3/28, Art Kendall <[hidden email]>:

> Now I see what your data looks like.
>
> Averaging percents is problematical unless the districts are the same
> size.  I there any way you can get the actual counts?
>
> Art Kendall
> Social Research Consultants
>
>
> Richard Ristow wrote:
> > Reformatting, only, of orginal post by Johnson Lau
> > <[hidden email]>.
> >
> > At 11:47 PM 3/27/2007, Johnson Lau wrote:
> >
> >> I'm currently analysing some election results. The data format is as
> >> follow:
> >
> > (The following reformatted data brought to you by WRR and the editor
> > Notetab, wondering why so much data does come through unrolled and
> > nearly unreadable. I hope this may help.)
> >
> > district  districtclass  age party  sex  percent
> >       A        H          32   X     M     35
> >       A        H          41   Y     F     65
> >       B        L          21   Y     M     70
> >       B        L          21   X     M     10
> >       B        L          50   Z     M     20
> >       C        L          46   X     F     35
> >       C        L          35   Y     F     45
> >       C        L          27   Z     M     20
> >       D        H          49   Z     M     40
> >       D        H          41   X     M     60
> >       E        H          37   X     M     30
> >       E        H          70   Y     M     45
> >       E        H          61   Z     F     25
> >       F        L          28   Y     F     40
> >       F        L          30   Z     F     60
> >
> >> These mean the District A is a Higher class district. It has 2
> >> candidates. The first one is Male, 32, representing party X. He got
> >> 35% of total vote. The second one is Female, 41, representing party Y,
> >> and got 65% of total vote. District B is a Lower class district. It
> >> has 3 candidates, etc. Regardless the number of candidates, the sum of
> >> "percent" for any "district" must be 100.
> >>
> >> I would like to predict the "percent" by age, party and sex. Since
> >> "percent" is restricted for each "district", I'm not sure what model
> >> should I use for such data structure. I have tried the followings:
> >>
> >> UNIANOVA
> >>   percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
> >>   /DESIGN = district party sex age .
> >>
> >> UNIANOVA
> >>   percent  BY district party sex  WITH age
> >>   /RANDOM = district
> >>   /DESIGN = district party sex age .
> >>
> >> UNIANOVA
> >>   percent  BY party sex  WITH age
> >>   /DESIGN = party sex age .
> >>
> >> Would anyone please to suggest which model should I use (and possbily
> >> other model not listed)? In addition, what should I do if I want to
> >> access the interaction effect between "districtclass" and "party"?
> >> Thanks a lot!
> >
> >
>


--
Johnson Lau
Research Assistant
School of Public Health
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2252 8705
Fax: (852) 2145 8517